Climate Modeling: An Overview
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface, living things, and sea ice. Researchers, such as the team at Ice911, use climate models to better understand the long-term effects of global changes such as increasing greenhouses gases or decreasing Arctic sea ice. The models are used to simulate conditions over hundreds of years, so that we can predict how our planet's climate will likely change.
Targeted climate modeling will help us determine exactly where in the Arctic (including the Beaufort Gyre or Fram Strait) a deployment of reflective sand will have the greatest impact on climate stability, global temperatures, and Arctic ice volume. It will also help indicate what time of season, deployment size, and dispersal timing from the ship would achieve maximum effectiveness while minimizing amount of material and cost.
Preliminary climate modeling shows that by spreading our material on ice in the Arctic, we can:
Reduce Arctic average temperatures by 1.5°C
Reduce the climb in global temperatures
Increase ice volume by 10% over 40 years
Increase average ice thickness by 20-50cm
Combining the data received at our testing sites with expert climate modeling has led to profound results indicating the benefits of a strategic application of reflective sand in the Arctic. Our findings were published as a peer-reviewed paper in the American Geophysical Union's pre-eminent journal, Earth's Future.
Expert climate modeling is expensive, and so is the computer time to run our models. Please consider donating today to accelerate our climate modeling efforts.